Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x
Backtest results
Metrics
1Y · since Oct 2025Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | +5.82% |
| CAGR | +5.87% |
| Sharpe | 0.39 |
| Calmar | 0.32 |
| Max DD | -18.21% |
| Volatility | 19.24% |
| Win Rate | 52.2% |
Last year of a hypothetical backtest, Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026. Create an account to see the full history.
About this strategy
Cautious, market-timing strategy that mainly holds leveraged S&P 500 (SSO) when the S&P 500's short-term volatility is low and its momentum is weaker than short-term Treasury bonds (SHY). When SPY's volatility rises above a 14- to 42-day threshold, it switches to long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) to protect against market swings.
Current allocation
What the rules select as of Oct 30, 2026.
- SSO100%
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Frequently asked questions
What is Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x?
Cautious, market-timing strategy that mainly holds leveraged S&P 500 (SSO) when the S&P 500's short-term volatility is low and its momentum is weaker than short-term Treasury bonds (SHY). When SPY's volatility rises above a 14- to 42-day threshold, it switches to long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) to protect against market swings.
What is Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x holding today?
As of Oct 30, 2026, Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x allocates to SSO 100%.
How has Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x performed over the past year?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x returned +6.3% in a hypothetical backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the maximum drawdown of Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, the largest peak-to-trough decline of Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x in a hypothetical backtest was -18.2%.
How do I use Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x?
Open Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. SHY & TLT | 2x in Quantly to rerun the backtest, adjust the rules, and paper trade it. You can also connect a supported brokerage to trade your version live.
Backtest results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns. Strategies are shared by Quantly users for research only and are not investment advice.