Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x
Backtest results
Metrics
1Y · since Oct 2025Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | +2.04% |
| CAGR | +2.05% |
| Sharpe | 0.22 |
| Calmar | 0.08 |
| Max DD | -26.55% |
| Volatility | 29.44% |
| Win Rate | 52.2% |
Last year of a hypothetical backtest, Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026. Create an account to see the full history.
About this strategy
A cautious strategy keeps the bond fund TLT when the S&P 500's short-term volatility rises, then flips to the 3x leveraged S&P 500 (UPRO) when volatility falls and the S&P 500's RSI is lower than that of short-term Treasuries (SHY). The switch protects the portfolio by moving into a defensive bond when market swings grow, and into a high-growth leveraged equity when the market appears calm and undervalued.
Current allocation
What the rules select as of Oct 30, 2026.
- UPRO100%
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Frequently asked questions
What is Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x?
A cautious strategy keeps the bond fund TLT when the S&P 500's short-term volatility rises, then flips to the 3x leveraged S&P 500 (UPRO) when volatility falls and the S&P 500's RSI is lower than that of short-term Treasuries (SHY). The switch protects the portfolio by moving into a defensive bond when market swings grow, and into a high-growth leveraged equity when the market appears calm and undervalued.
What is Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x holding today?
As of Oct 30, 2026, Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x allocates to UPRO 100%.
How has Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x performed over the past year?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x returned +2.3% in a hypothetical backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the maximum drawdown of Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, the largest peak-to-trough decline of Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x in a hypothetical backtest was -26.5%.
How do I use Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x?
Open Cautious Fund Surfing | SPY vs. TLT | 3x in Quantly to rerun the backtest, adjust the rules, and paper trade it. You can also connect a supported brokerage to trade your version live.
Backtest results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns. Strategies are shared by Quantly users for research only and are not investment advice.