Recession Tester
Backtest results
Metrics
1Y · since Oct 2025Recession Tester | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | +6.29% |
| CAGR | +6.34% |
| Sharpe | 0.91 |
| Calmar | 1.92 |
| Max DD | -3.31% |
| Volatility | 7.10% |
| Win Rate | 66.3% |
Last year of a hypothetical backtest, Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026. Create an account to see the full history.
About this strategy
A brisk market-teller that keeps the portfolio in the S&P 500 (SPY) when corporate bonds (LQD) outpace short-term Treasury bills (BIL) over the past 20 days, and otherwise stays in cash-like BIL. It switches on the relative performance of the two bond classes, staying defensive when bonds lag and moving to equity when they lead, protecting itself by retreating to low-risk T-bills when the bond market underperforms.
Current allocation
What the rules select as of Oct 30, 2026.
- SPY100%
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Frequently asked questions
What is Recession Tester?
A brisk market-teller that keeps the portfolio in the S&P 500 (SPY) when corporate bonds (LQD) outpace short-term Treasury bills (BIL) over the past 20 days, and otherwise stays in cash-like BIL. It switches on the relative performance of the two bond classes, staying defensive when bonds lag and moving to equity when they lead, protecting itself by retreating to low-risk T-bills when the bond market underperforms.
What is Recession Tester holding today?
As of Oct 30, 2026, Recession Tester allocates to SPY 100%.
How has Recession Tester performed over the past year?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, Recession Tester returned +6.3% in a hypothetical backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the maximum drawdown of Recession Tester?
From Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026, the largest peak-to-trough decline of Recession Tester in a hypothetical backtest was -3.3%.
How do I use Recession Tester?
Open Recession Tester in Quantly to rerun the backtest, adjust the rules, and paper trade it. You can also connect a supported brokerage to trade your version live.
Backtest results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns. Strategies are shared by Quantly users for research only and are not investment advice.