V1c Melkor's Folly
Backtest results
Metrics
1Y · since Nov 2025V1c Melkor's Folly | |
|---|---|
| Total Return | -24.30% |
| CAGR | -24.39% |
| Sharpe | -0.46 |
| Calmar | -0.51 |
| Max DD | -47.59% |
| Volatility | 42.23% |
| Win Rate | 47.2% |
Last year of a hypothetical backtest, Nov 3, 2025 to Nov 3, 2026. Create an account to see the full history.
About this strategy
Dynamic and defensive, the strategy mainly holds a leveraged innovation fund (TARK) when short-term bond momentum is weak, but switches to a short-term Treasury (BIL) or a short S&P 500 (SARK) when bond strength rises or risk-off signals appear. It protects itself by moving into cash-like bonds or inverse equity exposure whenever bond RSI outpaces high-beta equity RSI or when recent returns fall sharply, keeping the portfolio aligned with market sentiment.
Current allocation
What the rules select as of Nov 3, 2026.
- SOXS50%
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF
- MSTR15%
Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A
- KOLD5.2%
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas
- BTAL5%
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
- CTA5%
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
- DBMF5%
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
- SCHD4.2%
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
- TECL3.5%
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
- TMF3.1%
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
- TYD2.6%
Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
- CURE0.3%
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
- BIL0.2%
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
- PSQ0.2%
ProShares Short QQQ
- USO0.2%
United States Oil Fund, LP
- UUP0.2%
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
- XLP0.2%
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
- ERX0.1%
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
- UTSL0.1%
Direxion Daily Utilities Bull 3X ETF
Frequently asked questions
What is V1c Melkor's Folly?
Dynamic and defensive, the strategy mainly holds a leveraged innovation fund (TARK) when short-term bond momentum is weak, but switches to a short-term Treasury (BIL) or a short S&P 500 (SARK) when bond strength rises or risk-off signals appear. It protects itself by moving into cash-like bonds or inverse equity exposure whenever bond RSI outpaces high-beta equity RSI or when recent returns fall sharply, keeping the portfolio aligned with market sentiment.
What is V1c Melkor's Folly holding today?
As of Nov 3, 2026, V1c Melkor's Folly allocates to SOXS 50%, MSTR 15%, KOLD 5.2%, BTAL 5%, CTA 5%, DBMF 5%, SCHD 4.2%, TECL 3.5%, TMF 3.1%, TYD 2.6%, CURE 0.3%, BIL 0.2%, PSQ 0.2%, USO 0.2%, UUP 0.2%, XLP 0.2%, ERX 0.1%, UTSL 0.1%.
How has V1c Melkor's Folly performed over the past year?
From Nov 3, 2025 to Nov 3, 2026, V1c Melkor's Folly returned -21.7% in a hypothetical backtest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the maximum drawdown of V1c Melkor's Folly?
From Nov 3, 2025 to Nov 3, 2026, the largest peak-to-trough decline of V1c Melkor's Folly in a hypothetical backtest was -47.6%.
How do I use V1c Melkor's Folly?
Open V1c Melkor's Folly in Quantly to rerun the backtest, adjust the rules, and paper trade it. You can also connect a supported brokerage to trade your version live.
Backtest results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns. Strategies are shared by Quantly users for research only and are not investment advice.